Tucker, Abbott, Perdomo, D. Lee, Betts

Jul 3 2025 3:06am

Tucker is performing well… Kyle Tucker (OF, CHC) missed about three months with a shin injury in 2024, leading to only 23 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .289 BA in 336 PA. Tucker has nearly matched or exceeded the 2024 production in 2025, with 17 home runs, 20 steals, and a .291 BA in 370 PA. Have any of Tucker’s skills changed?

Tucker’s skills remained similar except for his power:

• Tucker’s plate discipline remains in the high-end to near-elite range, leading to higher batting averages and on-base percentages. After having a slight dip in his swing rate in 2024 (41.8%), Tucker’s swing rate bounced back to 45.8%, but still lower than his career average (48.9%).
• Tucker’s power skills and exit velocities have been near elite in 2025, similar to his career norms. That’s further evident in Tucker’s QBaB Score. We’ve seen him hit more flyballs over the past two seasons, aligning with his improved launch angles. Meanwhile, Tucker’s launch angle consistency has regularly been an issue for him.
• After Tucker’s stolen base chances fell to 11% in 2024, they bounced back in 2025, closer to his peak seasons of 19-20%, and slightly above the career norm (17%). Though he hasn’t boasted near-elite athleticism and speed, he converts his chances at a high rate.

Tucker flirted with 30/30 in 2022 and 2023. However, his first-half pace suggests he’ll surpass 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases with a quality batting average. That will lead to Tucker earning first-round value as we saw before the injury-riddled 2024 season. The skills align with the results and career norms.

In the hunt? BaseballHQ.com can help you snag the title. Unlock all of our insights like these for the rest of the season:  Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com.

Abbott is breaking out… Andrew Abbott (LHP, CIN) posted two consecutive seasons with an ERA under 4.00, with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. However, Abbott has been breaking out, with a 1.79 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 17% K%, and 6% BB% in 75 innings. Can he sustain the success?

Abbott’s xERA says be careful:

• Whenever there’s a breakout season, it’s usually a mixture of luck and skill. That’s the case for Abbott, with his luck factors (H%, S%) being significantly better than his career H% (30%) and S% (80%). However, Abbott’s 4.10 xERA is a career low, suggesting some skill gains.
• Abbott’s control slightly improved with a 34% ball rate, two percentage points better than his career average. His swinging strike rate has been decent, but not mind-blowing. However, Abbott generates a swinging strike rate of 12% or higher on four of his pitches. That includes his change-up (12.6% SwK), curveball (13.1%), slider (15.1%), and cutter (12.2%). For context, Abbott’s curveball took the biggest step forward with a 9.3% career SwK. Meanwhile, the rest of his pitches were similar to the career norms.
• He has been throwing his four-seamer (46.3%), change-up (27.3%), and curveball (14.3%) most often against right-handed hitters. Among those three pitches, his change-up (.217 wOBA, .294 xwOBA) and four-seam (.267 wOBA, .271 xwOBA) perform the best. Besides those primary offerings, Abbott’s sweeper has been sneaky good, allowing a .236 wOBA (.245 xwOBA) versus right-handed hitters, similar to 2024, though he only throws it 8% of the time.
• The heavy breaking pitch approach against left-handed hitters works well, evidenced by his sweeper (29.3%) allowing a .231 wOBA (.302 xwOBA) and the curveball (16.2%) being dominant (.105 wOBA, .139 xwOBA). Abbott still throws his four-seam 53% of the time versus lefties, and hitters don’t crush it (.337wOBA, .365 xwOBA). That’s partly because he commands it well, especially since the four-seamer possesses an above-average amount of arm-side fade, around 8-9 inches.

Abbott will typically outperform his expected ERA and metrics because he doesn’t have dominant stuff. Even if his ERA moves somewhere in between his actual and expected one, it would be a quality outcome for him. If Abbott maintains his better control, it could give him a higher floor and lead to potentially being more reliable. Expect regression, but he shouldn’t completely implode because of his effective approach to both sides of the plate.

Perdomo is quieting power concerns… Geraldo Perdomo (SS, ARI) has nine home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .262 BA in 366 PA. Perdomo has already set a career-best in home runs, but what do the skills indicate?

Perdomo’s power skills improved:

• Perdomo’s plate discipline has been a strength throughout his career, with his two best contact rates coming over the past two seasons. He boasts a career-high contact rate, five percentage points above his career average. Perdomo has an uber-patient approach with a 19-20% chase rate, leading to having swing and chase rates 8-9 percentage points below the league norm.
• We questioned Perdomo’s power output because of the below-average skills. That’s evident in his career 72 xPX, yet he has a career-high xPX in 2025, significantly higher than what we expect. But, where is Perdomo’s power skill coming from? The exit velocities and pull rates have been the same, though we’ve seen a slight uptick in his barrel rate (4.4%), which is still below the league average (4.8%). That suggests being cautious about Perdomo’s power output, especially with some of the same underlying metrics.
• Unsurprisingly, Perdomo’s stolen base opportunity rate spiked when he posted double-digit stolen bases in 2023 and 2025. Thankfully, he converted a high rate of his stolen base chances. He flashed slightly above-average athleticism and defensive metrics to support his stolen base output.

When hitters like Perdomo boast near-elite contact rates, we hope they can show average power to translate into double-digit home runs. It’s a bonus when a hitter like Perdomo chips in with stolen bases to earn fantasy value. Think about a cheaper version of Steven Kwan, and Perdomo fits that mold. Perdomo’s skills support the pace for a breakout season in 2025, but the power might be the most questionable.

Raisel Iglesias‘ struggles opened the door for others… Dylan Lee (LHP, ATL) has a 1.67 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 28% K%, 6% BB%, and two saves in 38 innings. For context, Lee’s only career saves came in 2025. Can his skills lead to more save chances in 2025?

Lee has the skills, but not quite the closer role:

• Throughout Lee’s career, he has outperformed his expected ERA (3.47) compared to a career ERA of 2.38. Lee’s luck factors have been in his favor. However, we’ve seen some near-elite to elite strikeout skills throughout his career.
• That’s evident in Lee’s career K-BB% at 22% and a 19.5% swinging strike rate. Lee’s K-BB% in 2025 has been similar to his career averages, but the swinging strikes have fluctuated throughout his career. The slider (22.5% SwK) and change-up (14.3% SwK) continue to lead his arsenal from a whiff standpoint. However, Lee’s pitch-level SwK fell from his slider’s career SwK at 25.3% and the change-up at 17.9%. That explains the overall SwK decline.
• So what changed in Lee’s arsenal? Lee’s slider and change-up have lost 2-3 inches of downward movement in 2025 compared to 2024, which would coincide with a dip in whiffs. Meanwhile, Lee’s slider (.117 wOBA, .197 xwOBA) and change-up (.210 wOBA, .224 xwOBA) have been deadly against right-handed hitters and better than recent seasons. It might be small sample reliever noise, but Lee seemed to trade whiffs for weak contact in 2025 against righties.
• The same trend occurred against left-handed hitters. However, Lee’s results via the slider regressed toward the expected metrics from 2024 (.298 wOBA, .188 xwOBA). That’s evident in Lee’s slider, allowing a .168 wOBA and .204 xwOBA against left-handed hitters in 2025. Unfortunately, Lee’s slider serves as the only effective pitch, with the four-seamer resulting in a .471 wOBA (.478 xwOBA) against lefties in 2025.

Lee ranks third on the team in the game leverage index among the relievers with 10 innings in 2025. Raisel Iglesias (1.53) and Daysbel Hernández (1.53) lead the team, with Lee (1.45) close behind. Lee has arguably been the team’s best reliever from a skills standpoint, so maybe he will chip in more save chances if Iglesias doesn’t turn it around. Monitor Lee in deeper formats.

Betts has been off to a slow start… Mookie Betts (SS/OF, LA) has nine home runs, six stolen bases, and a .249 BA in 343 PA in 2025. After 35 home runs and 12+ stolen bases in 2022 and 2023, Betts saw his production fall to 19 homers and 16 steals in 2024. Can he bounce back to provide outcomes similar to his peak seasons? Let’s examine Betts’ skills.

Betts needs the exit velocity data to bounce back:

• Betts has seen his batting average and xBA fall over the past couple of seasons. He dealt with a fractured left hand last season, so maybe that contributed to his decline in power skills. That’s notable because Betts maintained his elite plate discipline and contact rates. However, Betts needs the power skills to return.
• Unsurprisingly, the home run rate for Betts declined with his xPX dipping over the past two seasons. We’ve seen those same trends with his QBaB Score, suggesting his exit velocities went from near-elite to elite to average in 2025. His launch angles remained consistent, evidenced by his batted ball profile. Maybe the power skills regress if the exit velocities bounce back.
• One path for the exit velocities to return involves Betts pulling the ball more often. From 2021 to 2023, Betts pulled the ball 45-48% of the time. However, his pull rate fell to 35% (2024) and 42.3% (2025). Theoretically, Betts could pull the ball more to impact his exit velocities and skills.
• His stolen base opportunity rate fluctuated over the past two seasons, with 2024 aligning closer to his career average (13%). If the lower stolen base chances remain lower in 2025, Betts might compile something closer to 10-12.

Be patient with Betts because he should still be a high-end option with strong plate discipline and foundational skills. If Betts pulls the ball more often in the second half of 2025, we could see the power skills align and support better power outputs. Besides the power, the rest of his skills have been consistent.

More From Facts & Flukes