NFL Conference Championship betting recap: Books, bettors have give-and-take day

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

In a season that’s seen the public betting masses do quite well and a divisional round in which the sportsbooks regained some ground, NFL conference championship odds had something for everyone.

Sunday’s two games featured a ton of scoring, which is always good for the betting public. But with both underdogs getting a lot of attention, having both favorites win and cover helped some bookmakers.

“We did well, considering the high scoring. I think we will find some bettors who also had a good day. I think both we and the bettors as a collective will sign for it,” BetMGM senior trader Tristan Davis said.

Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL conference championship betting.

Hail To The Chiefs

In the AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs closed as either 1- or 1.5-point home favorites vs. the Buffalo Bills, depending on the sportsbook. Ostensibly, the bookmakers were saying all week that this was a coin-toss game, and it certainly played out that way.

The Chiefs got a field goal with 3:33 left to break a 29-29 tie, then forced the Bills to turn it over on downs, securing a 32-29 victory.

That was a mostly favorable result for The SuperBook.

“We did pretty well. We had good conference futures positions on both the Chiefs and the Eagles,” SuperBook vice president John Murray said.

But the 61 combined points weren’t ideal behind the counter, on a total that closed at 49.5.

“There were a lot of parlays playing the Over in both games,” Murray said, alluding to a scoring bonanza in the Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles game, as well.

The Tourist Special

Although the Bills and Commanders were generally trendy road underdogs, there were pockets where that wasn’t the case. That included BetMGM Nevada’s books up and down the Las Vegas Strip.

Saquon Barkley and the Eagles ran wild on the Commanders, posting a 55-23 blowout as 6-point home favorites. The total on that game closed at 47, and anyone who bet the Over cashed their ticket relatively early in the third quarter.

“We got smashed on both the game and on conference futures,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.

Then, as noted above, the Chiefs won and covered in another high-scoring contest.

“The tourist special actually cashed, with favorite and Over to favorite and Over,” Shelton said.

But all in all, much like BetMGM nationally, the sportsbook’s Vegas operation had a give-and-take day.

“We ended up a small loser for the day. We took some big late money on Bills +1,” Shelton said, noting the Chiefs’ 3-point win was helpful in that respect. “The day could’ve been much worse.”

For Prime Sportsbook, which operates in Ohio and New Jersey, the day was much worse, particularly with the Eagles’ blowout victory.

“One of the most bittersweet moments in bookmaking is getting blowtorched on a big game by the team you’ve been a fan of you’re entire life,” Prime’s Joe Brennan Jr. said. “Philly absolutely crushed us.

“After paying out to everyone and their brother on the Birds, they all came back for seconds on the Chiefs. The only good thing about this Super Bowl matchup is that one of those teams has to lose.”

Saquon Barkley, Eagles cruise to win over vs. Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Overwhelming Outcomes

As noted above, the Over easily hit in both conference title games. Interestingly, two of the day’s largest wagers — one on each game — were actually on the Under.

Ahead of the Commanders-Eagles kickoff, DraftKings Sportsbook took a massive $1 million bet on Under 47.5. That bettor never had a chance.

The first half featured 42 points — Philly led 27-15 — and the Eagles put it over the top on a Jalen Hurts 9-yard touchdown run that made it 34-15 six minutes into the third quarter.

At Borgata Sportsbook, a BetMGM property in Atlantic City, there was a $215,000 wager on Bills-Chiefs Under 49.5.

It took a little longer to get there, almost five minutes into the fourth quarter. But Patrick Mahomes’ 10-yard TD run and the Chiefs’ subsequent 2-point conversion gave K.C. a 29-22 lead, which clinched the Over.

So those two major wagers were hefty donations to the house.

Super Bowl Shuffle

In Super Bowl odds, the Chiefs are consensus 1.5-point favorites vs. the Eagles. No surprise, some scoring is expected, as well, with a consensus total of 49.5, which will almost surely get bet higher.

Kansas City is seeking an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title. Chiefs-Eagles is a rematch from two years ago, when K.C. was a 1-point underdog and outlasted Philly 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII.

Super Bowl LIX takes place on Feb. 9, with a 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX from the Superdome in New Orleans.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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