The 2024 MLB Playoffs have commenced, and the divisional matches on the bracket are finalized. Futures bettors should use the opportunity to secure advantageous wagers; as anticipated, the Yankees, Dodgers, and Phillies have the lowest odds on the World Series betting board.
We have witnessed remarkable postseason activity thus far, and with all eight clubs live, none will encounter elimination until Game 4 in the best-of-five LDS playoff round. For the first time, all four divisional series—Royals-Yankees, Mets-Phillies, Padres-Dodgers, and Tigers-Guardians—are knotted at one game each as they proceed to Game 3. On that note, let us examine the probabilities, the frontrunners, and our anticipations as we approach the 2024 World Series.
Odds to Win the World Series 2024
New York Yankees [+380]
Los Angeles Dodgers [+425]
Philadelphia Phillies [+450]
San Diego Padres [+500]
Cleveland Guardians [+1000]
New York Mets [+1000]
Detroit Tigers [+1200]
Kansas City Royals [+1300]
Odds as of 10/8/24
New York Opposites: Yankees & Mets
Ironically, the Yankees possess the second-longest World Series championship drought (2009) within this group (Philadelphia, 2008).
The cross-town Mets participated in a World Series more recently (2015) and are unexpectedly part of the conversation following one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in team history.
Following a dramatic comeback that ousted the Brewers, the Mets currently possess +1000 chances to secure the World Series, a decrease from +1500 before the commencement of the postseason.
They remain an unlikely prospect; nevertheless, consider this: The Texas Rangers were +5000 to secure the 2023 World Series title before the commencement of last season (1.96% probability of occurrence), and we know how that played out!
World Series Favourites: Yankees, Dodgers, & Phillies
● New York Yankees [+380]
● Los Angeles Dodgers [+425]
● Philadelphia Phillies [+450]
New York Yankees
Fourteen years. For most organisations, this duration between titles is rather brief. For the Yankees and their supporters, it seems like 1014 years. This is the second-longest championship drought in team history, following a 16-season hiatus that concluded in 1996. This period from 2009 to 2023 constitutes the third-longest interval in team history without a World Series appearance. Will it conclude in 2024?
Issues are arising early in the postseason. The Astros and Orioles have been eliminated, prompting a market response. The odds of -140 for the Yankees to win the American League indicate a 58.3% probability of their advancement to the World Series for the first time since their victory in 2009.
However, participation trophies are non-existent. What is the prospect of ending the 14-year drought?
Thus, the inquiry arises: how do they conclude it? By employing their customary strategy: Dominating offensively. The Yankees recorded the second-most number of runs in MLB, trailing only Arizona, and achieved the highest total runs among postseason teams. While odds can be found on popular online betting apps, I wouldn’t be quick to wager on the shortest odds, as the field is dead even at the time of writing, and no matter how good the pairing of Judge and Soto looks, there’s an argument for wagering value on any of the eight remaining teams.
LA Dodgers
The NL West winners started the postseason as the favourite team, having secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs due to an MLB-leading 98-win regular season. The Dodgers’ 2024 World Series betting odds before the start of the postseason were comparable to their odds during their last championship victory in 2020 (+320). The Dodgers entered the postseason as the predominant favourites for valid reasons. They topped baseball in run differential (+156), mostly attributable to Shohei Ohtani’s unprecedented 50-50 season in MLB history.
However, they do not operate as a one-man band. Eight other familiar faces achieved a minimum of 10 home runs. Home run derby champion Teoscar Hernandez achieved a career-high of 33 home runs in his inaugural year in Los Angeles, while Mookie Betts maintains his production levels.
That said, the Dodgers may need to surpass their opponents in scoring to secure their second World Series title in 36 years, and if you watched Game 2 versus the Padres (10-2 loss), you’d be worried about their chances right now.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ pitching is probably the most superior among the remaining postseason teams, which accounts for their status as the third-best choice in the 2024 World Series betting odds.
Their chances have diminished following the Mets’ exploitation of their bullpen in Game 1, undermining an outstanding performance by Zack Wheeler. The Phillies rebounded in Game 2 despite another tumultuous performance from the bullpen.
The Phillies’ fundamental weakness has manifested itself early in the season. Among postseason teams, only the Mets and Orioles recorded higher bullpen ERAs (3.94). Can Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Christopher Sanchez render a shaky bullpen inconsequential? Fans will be on the edge of their seats awaiting this answer. Still, this team has several exceptional players who’ll compete vigorously for their inaugural championship. However, Bryce Harper, more than any other, requires a ring to complete his illustrious résumé and is one of the reasons you can easily root for Philadelphia’s finest.
Everybody’s Favourite Dark Horse: Padres
The Padres’ 93 victories are equal to those of the Yankees and Brewers, ranking third in Major League Baseball, trailing only the Dodgers (98) and Phillies (95). They own a 48-42 record against teams with winning records and are second only to the exceptionally performing Tigers, with a record of 20-10 in their past 30 games.
This implies that the Padres are not a typical wild-card group, and a thorough examination of the squad presents a compelling argument that they are as formidable as any division champion in the competition.
Such was displayed during their recent 10-2 beatdown of the Dodgers. As a team attached to +1600 pre-season odds to win the World Series, the current price of +500 isn’t the biggest disparity on the board, and it is one that’s tickled many people’s fancy… But why?
San Diego boasts a formidable three-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. That will significantly enhance if Joe Musgrove can return to his common regular on the mound. Mike Shildt’s club also possesses a formidable bullpen quartet of Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam, Robert Suarez, and Tanner Scott. Even with the absence of Musgrove, these seven premier pitchers can effectively contain L.A. and Philly.
The Padres’ offense has also been rather impressive. The team has superstar sluggers Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, a clutch leadoff hitter in two-time batting champion Luis Arraez, a breakout talent in Jackson Merrill, and an experienced stabilizer in Jurickson Profar. The lineup is entertaining, except for those who support or wagered on the Dodgers.
Getting through LA won’t be an easy feat, but if they do, you best believe those World Series odds of +500 will soon evaporate.
Photo by NIKOLAI FOMIN: https://www.pexels.com/photo/baseball-match-at-stadium-25547607/
