The Minnesota Twins seem to be stuck in mediocrity. Since the 2019 ‘Bomba Squad’ Twins hit their high water mark in both home runs and wins for the franchise, they have since played almost exactly even ball, sitting just two wins above .500 over the last five seasons at 356-352. After being pushed into fourth place in a surprisingly strong AL Central, how do the Twins stack up for ‘25?
What happened in 2024?
Fresh off of an offseason where the great Joe Mauer was elected as a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, the Twins looked to capitalise on a short 2023 playoff run and a winning season. The Twins had a strong start to the season with an MLB-leading 12-game winning streak in April/May (though ten of the twelve games were against the White Sox and Angels!) – and despite trailing the Guardians throughout, the Twins seemed locked into a wildcard slot. Their playoff likelihood topped off at 95.8% on September 2nd, as they held a commanding 75-62 record, good for 4th place in the American League.
From September 3rd on, the Twins were a totally differnt ballclub. The team won only seven of their final 24 games, slipping to 82-80. That is a historically poor finish to the season for a contending team – since integration in 1947, only two teams with a winning record over the course of a season have done as poorly as that through their last 24 games: the 2011 Boston Red Sox, who went 6-18 and managed to miss the playoffs with a 90-72 record (!), and the 2024 Twins. Accompanying the Twins collapse was a Tigers surge – the Gritty Tigs went an MLB-best 16-8 over the same span to snag the final Wildcard spot. The historic collapse is best illustrated by this brutal graph, courtesy of Fangraphs:
Big offseason news
The offseason proved to be steady rather than splashy. On the major league front, the Twins signed Ty France, Harrison Bader and Danny Coulombe, three solid but unexciting pieces.
France is a bounceback candidate – after three straight years with an OPS+ over 125 from 2020-22, he has since hovered around 100 OPS+ while playing below-average defense at first base. He’ll likely be the primary first baseman again this year, ceding some time to Jose Miranda. Hitting above .250 with 15-20 home runs would constitute a decent comeback.
Bader is projected to platoon with Trevor Larnach in left field, but given that this is still a team starting Byron Buxton, it’s a near-certainty that he’ll miss time, so Bader might find himself starting a little more than expected. Bader projects to be one of the league’s better fourth outfielders. He’ll probably play league-average defense and hit around .230.
Coulombe had an injury-marked 2024, only pitching 29.2 innings before having surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, but still managing to accumulate one win above replacement and a 2.12 ERA in those 33 games. Coulombe projects to be the only lefty in the bullpen in 2025.
The Twins also had a couple of notable losses, with 2024 Gold Glove recipient at first base Carlos Santana, Max Kepler and Caleb Thielbar all leaving for pastures new. The team has been hamstrung by ownership looking to sell, who have imposed a short-term ban on big spending in free-agency so as not to burden a new owner with unwanted debt.
One to watch
Louis Varland has struggled as an on-again off-again starter in the majors thus far, but is transitioning full-time to the bullpen this year. In 2024 almost every pitching measure was better as a reliever than a starter, and being able to put max effort into every pitch meant that he topped 100mph for the first time too. An uptick in velocity plus a 90th percentile extension (the distance that he stretches down the mound before releasing the ball) means that Varland could be on for a successful season in a consistent role.
Reasons for optimism
Pre-collapse, the Twins were a dark horse team to make a deep playoff run, and that was with most of their position players missing time at various points throughout the season. If Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis can all stay fully healthy and anchor this lineup, their top three starters in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are more than good enough to be competitive in any playoff series.
There’s also reason to be optimistic about the long term – the Twins ban on short term free agency didn’t stretch to the international free agency market, where they snagged four of the top fifty prospects, and their farm system is consistently ranked in the top 10 in baseball.
2025 Prediction
The AL Central, after years of middling performance, is suddenly a very competitive division, with both the Guardians and the Royals looking strong. Fangraphs have projected all three teams to be within two wins of each other, with the Twins slightly ahead – i’m a little more pessimistic, and think that the most likely route to the playoffs is as a wildcard. I think they finish about 83-79, making the playoffs as the #7 seed.
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Featured image of Royce Lewis by AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn
