Possessors of the longest World Series championship drought in MLB, the Guardians continue to field competitive rosters, but not quite good enough to get their hands on the Commissioner’s Trophy.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024?
The Guardians had the second-best record in the AL last season – a 92-win season – which saw them clinch the AL Central. They also ended up being the second-best team in the AL in the postseason after a 4-1 series loss in the ALCS to the New York Yankees. This was after winning a gripping AL Division Series 3-2 against division rivals, the Detroit Tigers.
This was a season of highs and lows for the Guardians, which held equally large amounts of good luck and bad luck. A broken and ugly rotation, paired with potentially the best bullpen in MLB history, generally kept the games tight. That, in combination with Cleveland’s streaky low power offence, meant that almost every game had some ‘squeaky bum time’ for the fans.
It didn’t end on the greatest of notes – 29 teams’ seasons end on a sour note – but Cleveland had another unforgettable postseason moment in a losing series, Jhonkensy Noel and his ‘Big Christmas’ nickname will be mentioned in the same conversations as Rajai Davis for Guardian’s fans.
BIG OFFSEASON NEWS
The trades of starting nine stalwarts, Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor, to Toronto and Arizona, respectively, again showed that the ownership cares more about maintaining its own balance than putting a competitive team out onto the field.
There have been a few additions from these trades, other trades and free agency. The notables include the return of fan favourite Carlos Santana and the return of former hyped prospect Nolan Jones, which will make fans happy but might not do too much to the win-loss record come the end of the season.
ONE TO WATCH
The one to watch is obviously José Ramírez, but you already know that.
The one who might make or break this season for the Guards is Kyle Manzardo. The 24-year-old first baseman picked up from the Rays in a trade back in 2023 for Aaron Civale will probably spend most of his time hitting from the three spot in the Cleveland lineup, and if he can improve on his swing and miss whilst maintaining some power, he will be a key part of the offence for this team.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
- All four of the relievers, Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis, who threw 65+ innings last year with ERA below two, are still on the team and are healthy.
- The rotation cannot be any worse than it was last season. They had three starters (Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie) who had 5+ ERA and combined for 276.2 innings. That won’t happen in 2025.
- Jose Ramirez was back to his best in 2024 and looks ready to give Cleveland another 5+ win season and all but cement his position as a future Hall of Famer.
- Shortstop Brayan Rocchio might have worked out how to add some power to his bat. He was an average hitter (102 wRC+) in September last year, the only month in the year he was. He then had a stellar postseason with the bat (162 wRC+) and has looked good in Spring Training (126 wRC+). If this is true, he’s gonna be another great glove-first but stable hitter in the SS spot for the Guardians.
- The team has replaced the 10th-best first baseman (Naylor) with the fifth-best by fWAR last season (Santana).
REASONS FOR PESSIMISM
As I’m the Guardians fan that I am, I can’t just be optimistic; I have to be pessimistic as well.
- Relievers are volatile at best, I’d honestly be surprised if just one of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin had a sub 2 ERA again, let alone all of them repeating that.
- We traded away the two guys who had the second most games played and plate appearances, who combined for 5 fWAR, and are hoping a combination of a 39-year-old free agent and some young rookies and recent rookie grads can fill their spaces.
- Some combination of Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie and Jakob Junis is going to have to start at least 30 games this season.
- I have no idea who the third-best hitter is on this team, and not in a good way. Ramírez and Steven Kwan are easily one and two, but we could see a season where no other guy gets a wRC+ over 110.
- This division is still probably the easiest to win, and the addition of just one semi-decent player would have the Guardians as favourites. But no, the Edwin Encarnación three-year/$60 million deal from 2017 is still Cleveland’s biggest free agent signing. And he only spent two years actually playing for the team.
2025 PREDICTION
This team could win 90 games or lose 90 games and it wouldn’t be surprising, there’s so much variance for the players on the roster that anything is possible. I think they have players and the system to push for another division win but I just don’t see them quite making it this season. So, I’ll go with 84 wins.
Featured image of Jose Ramirez by Jason Miller/Getty Images
Article by Russell Eassom. Arguably the greatest baseball analytical mind this side of the Atlantic, Russell presented a paper at the SABR Analytics Conference in 2020 on a metric he created called SOPF (Strength of Player Faced) and then in 2023, he was invited to cast the World Series MVP vote in Phoenix on behalf of the British media. Oh, and Shohei Ohtani high-fived him. If you’re not following Russell on social media, then you’re doing baseball wrong.
