It is just over a year since I stepped away from Cincinnati Reds fanship, yet I still hoped I would jealously watch them in the postseason as I firmly stuck to my “don’t follow any one team” credentials.
Instead, they continued their run of never finishing in the top half of the NL Central since it switched to the current five-team format in 2013. Twelve seasons is a long time to never even finish runner-up in the division.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024?
The crop of exciting youngsters that came through in 2023 made Reds fans salivate about their chances in 2024, but in this post-Votto era – the first season without the Canadian legend since he was drafted in 2002 – the team disappointed the long-suffering faithful again.
A 77-win season saw them slip 16 games behind division winners, the Milwaukee Brewers. And let’s be honest, after trading away Corbin Burnes, and with Willy Adames and Devin Williams on the trade block, it looked like the Brewers were not serious divisional contenders.
However, according to the Reds’ Pythagorean winning percentage (an estimate of a team’s winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed), Cincinnati was a little unlucky, and perhaps an 82-win season would have been fair.
Although, before we get carried away, the Brewers’ Pythagorean suggested a 95-win season.
It is easy to blame injuries, but the Reds went from having a preseason infield surplus to being forced to trade for Santiago Espinal in March. The 29-year-old Dominican passed the eye test, and with nine homers and 11 stolen bases over 118 games, I thought he was a league-average replacement. His -0.4 WAR (75 wRC+) campaign suggests that my eyes failed me again.
It is bizarre that Santiago Espinal played more games for the Reds in 2024 than Matt McLain has in his entire career. After posting 3.6 WAR in just an 89-game rookie season, McLain missed the whole of 2024 after shoulder surgery
TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer were frequently banged up, and worryingly for this season, Steer is absent from spring training with a McLain-like shoulder injury.
Highly-rated prospect Noelvi Marte was expected to form a dynamic infield with McLain and Elly De La Cruz, pushing Jonathan India to the outfield, but Marte received an 80-game suspension in March for violating the league’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program.
He was a -1.8 WAR player in 66 games when he returned to the lineup. It’s tough to be that ineffective over such a short time. Maybe Richard Ashcraft was wrong.
Perhaps the most crushing aspect of the 2024 season for Reds fans was losing a league-leading 28 one-run games.
BIG OFFSEASON NEWS
Right-handed starter, Brady Singer joined the rotation with Jonathan India moving to Kansas City. Singer posted a useful 3.71 ERA over 32 starts last year in 179⅔ innings. The Reds need innings eaters. They haven’t had a pitcher throw more than 151 innings since 2021.
The departure of India appeared to address the infield surplus that still hounded the team, until that is, they swung a deal to bring out-of-favour infielder Gavin Lux from the Dodgers. The versatile yet often injured 27-year-old can hit right-handed pitchers but was limited to just 50 plate appearances against lefties in 2024, so will assume some sort of platoon role for Cincinnati.
I was hopeful of reporting that the Reds had acquired Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox, a player that they were very keen on, but unfortunately, a deal could not be done, with Chicago hoping Robert rebuilds his trade value in the first half of the season.
Instead, the Reds signed Austin Hays as a free agent. This looks like a great bit of business to get the 29-year-old outfielder who was squeezed out of the stacked Orioles roster. After his -0.1 WAR 2024, Hays is a contender for comeback player of the season if he hits cleanup behind Friedl, McLain, and De La Cruz.
However, the biggest offseason news was the appointment of Terry Francona as manager. I frequently view managers as the Philip Seymour Hoffman portrayal of Art Howe in Moneyball. That is, they don’t really do much to affect the outcome of the game or even the season.
Francona is different. Here is a guy who immediately gains the trust of his players, instils belief, and gets sub-performing players to realise their potential.
Confidence and self-belief are tricky characteristics to measure in our sabermetrically-focused sport, but there is definitely a new aura of optimism surrounding Great American Ballpark today.
ONE TO WATCH
I can’t choose Elly De La Cruz, because if you’re a ball fan, you will watch him anyway. Instead, I’ll choose first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand.
Selected by the Twins in the fourth round of the 2021 draft and then flipped to the Reds in the Tyler Mahle deal, the right-handed slugger posted a 39 OPS+ over 123 plate appearances in the majors last year. If 100 OPS+ is the league average, you can see that CES has left himself a lot of scope for improvement.
The Reds will give the 25-year-old plenty of opportunities at first base and designated hitter to harness his power into solid production. Strikeouts will always be his Achilles heel – his strikeout rate hovers just below 30 K% – but if he could bring that down closer to 20-22 K%, then we’re looking at the best first baseman in the division.
With three homers and an .863 OPS in the Cactus League, the guy with the longest name in baseball could be set for a breakout season.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Elly De La Cruz
Is there a more exciting player in the game? I think not. In the recent Bat Flips & Nerds podcast, Driveline guru Kyle Boddy, referred to De La Cruz as one of the most intelligent players he had worked with. Imagine that – dynamic speed, effortless power, hitting skill, and cerebral ability to take information and make adjustments.
The best rotation in the division
Sure, this is a glass-half-full outlook, but Hunter Greene has Cy Young winning ability if he can stay healthy, and Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, and Nick Martinez are all severely underrated. They have Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, Carson Spiers, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips ready to take up the slack, and who knows, maybe even Tom Pringle’s favourite non-roster-invitee Wade Miley will get a nod.
Worst division in MLB
It might not actually be the worst, as there are no Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies or Chicago White Sox gifting wins, but the division is there for the taking. As confirmed by the Kyle Tucker trade, the Chicago Cubs are going all in to win, but the Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates don’t appear to be in their competitive window at the moment.
There is strength in depth
Unfortunately, spring training injuries have already forced a couple of revisions to the possible Opening Day lineup.
2025 PREDICTION
The Reds need a lot to go right for them to make the playoffs. If McLain is like the player he was in 2023, Steer doesn’t miss too much time at the start of the year, Hays vies for comeback player of the season, Encarnacion-Strand becomes a Top-10 first baseman, Hunter Greene is in the Cy Young discussion, and the rest of the rotation stays healthy, then this is a team that could even get to the World Series.
However, it seems almost impossible for this to happen, so it looks like 2025 will be another series of “One superstar and a lot of mediocrity.”
