For the second straight year, the Cubs came within touching distance of the postseason in 2024 but their lack of depth and superstar talent cost them once again. This offseason they addressed both of those issues, but will it be enough for the Cubs to return to the promised land in 2025?
What happened in 2024?
After entering the season with high hopes, the Cubs recorded an 83–79 record for the second straight year; good enough for joint-second place in the NL Central.
Ten games back of the division-winning Milwaukee Brewers, they missed out on the playoffs once again, thanks to a disastrous slump that saw them go 15-31 between 13 May and 3 July.
There were some bright spots: Shōta Imanaga went 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in his rookie MLB season; Michael Busch had a solid first year with Cubs; and Pete Crow-Armstrong made his major league breakthrough, turning heads thanks to some outrageous defensive plays in centre field.
Big offseason news
The biggest move of the offseason came in form of the trade that saw the Houston Astros send star hitter Kyle Tucker to the North Siders. The Cubs paid steeply for him – giving up Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and 2023 first round pick Cam Smith in the trade – but will be hoping that the outfielder can help move the needle for a team that finished 20th in home runs and 17th in sugging in 2024.
Elsewhere, the Cubs worked to improve the overall depth of the team, giving up the likes of Cody Bellinger, Kyle Hendricks, Mike Tauchman, Adbert Alzolay, Patrick Wisdom, Drew Smyly, and Nick Madrigal to make room for Matthew Boyd, Carson Kelly, Justin Turner, Colin Rea, Caleb Thielbar, and Jon Berti. These moves make them look like a stronger group that should have more resource to draw upon over the course of the season, provided some of the gambles (e.g. 40-year-old Turner) pay off.
The other thing this offseason will be remembered for is the Cubs failed pursuit of Alex Bregman. To quote ESPN, “The Cubs dangled a four-year, $115 million deal that left them outbid significantly by the Tigers and Astros, and Bregman chose a three-year deal with the Red Sox.” While missing out on the star third baseman at the price the Sox paid was a relief to much of the fanbase, Jed Hoyer’s frank assessment epitomised the other’s, before Tom Ricketts united all Cubs fans in the aftermath by talking about the need to break even.
One to watch
Anyone who’s so inclined should keep tabs on whether or not Shōta can repeat the feat of his impressive rookie season, whether or not Busch can take a step forward in 2025, and if PCA can put up offensive numbers that back up his audacious haircut.
The real one to watch this year will be rookie Matt Shaw, though, as he becomes the second young Cub to try and adapt to third base, following Christopher Morel’s ill-fated stint there last year. The good news is that Shaw is a much more consistent hitter, who absolutely torched his way from South Bend (High-A) to Iowa (Triple A) in a matter of no time, after getting drafted 13th overall by the Cubs in the 2023 draft.
The decision to play him there (which seems all but made after the announcement that he would travel with the team to Japan for the Tokyo Series) could have major implications for the Cubs, given that they don’t really have a plan B after flaming out on Bregman and trading away all their depth at the position. That said, the signs are good, as Shaw hit .313 in 19 plate appearances during Spring Training, while showing flashes at the hot corner.
Reasons for optimism
- The Cubs finally have a star, after acquiring Tucker. And while his time in Chicago may be fleeting, his bat could be enough to push this team over the hump and get them back to the postseason for the first time since 2018.
- Although his strong rookie year took just about everyone by surprise, Shōta Imanaga is the best starting pitcher the Cubs have had on their roster since trading away Yu Darvish in the winter of 2020.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has the potential to be a star and is already, arguably, one of MLB’s most exciting centre fielders. What’s perhaps most important, however, is that he plays with a kind of energy and generates the kind of excitement not seen in Chicago since Javy Báez’s heyday.
- After years of struggling to produce homegrown pitching, the Cubs finally have a wealth of it in the form of Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown. Brown, in particular, is an exciting prospect for the Cubs; one who may even have the stuff to pitch at the top end of the rotation at some point fairly soon.
- After a tough first year in Chicago, Cubs fans will be hoping for more evidence of the ‘Craig Counsell effect’ in 2025. Arguably baseball’s best manager, Counsell struggled at times last year due to a lacklustre bullpen and a lack of quality offensive depth. With offseason improvements in both areas, he should be more influential in 2025.
Prediction
I’m going to go all in and say that the Cubs take a step forward in 2025, winning the division and making some noise in the postseason. They kind of have to, as Kyle Tucker is a one-year rental, Jed Hoyer’s contract expires at the end of the year and the Brewers are the Brewers, the Cardinals are in the doldrums and, more importantly, the Reds and Pirates are on the rise.
While they aren’t willing to spend what a big market team on the brink of a breakout should, their payroll heading into the season is the 12th biggest in baseball; far greater than any of their divisional rivals.
Meaning it’s time for the Cubs to go out and play like a big market team in a bad division. If they don’t, it’s likely the end of the road for Hoyer and yet more uncertainty for a fanbase that hasn’t seen its team win a postseason game since game four of the 2017 NLCS.
Featured image by Masterpress/Getty Images.
