The difference between a regular baseball fan and a legit baseball nerd like you is that the regular fan didn’t realise the Arizona Diamondbacks scored the most runs in MLB last season. Will the Phoenix run-machine turn their offensive production into postseason glory this year?
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024
An impressive 89 wins but a disappointing third-place finish in the NL West. The Diamondbacks failed to make the playoffs thanks to the Wild Card doubleheader farce that saw the Mets and Braves contrive a split so that both teams progressed.
Star of the lineup was Ketel Marte, who slugged 36 homers with a .292/.372/.560 slash line to finish third in MVP voting.
Zac Gallen again spearheaded a potent rotation that saw Brandon Pfaadt lead the staff with 181 innings and Ryne Nelson start 25 games for a 4.24 ERA (3.71 FIP).
BIG OFFSEASON NEWS
While watching the playoffs with envy, I doubt that Mike Hazen’s (D-Backs general manager) wildest daydreams included a 29-year-old, former Cy Young award winner “begging” to join the Diamondbacks, but that is basically what happened. Corbin Burnes snubbed the Mets, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Dodgers to sign a lower-than-expected six-year, $210 million deal with Arizona.
Although at a different end of the free-agent pool, having just enjoyed a 140 OPS+ season, Randal Grichuk also left money on the table to re-join the Diamondbacks.
With Christian Walker leaving in free agency, the D-Backs swapped defensive excellence for a bit more pop at first base by signing 27-year-old Josh Naylor. Hitting cleanup between Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Eugenio Suarez, it could be a career year for Naylor.
In other news, the Diamondbacks quietly secured a couple of underrated players to long-term deals when they agreed extension terms with infielder Geraldo Perdomo and elite relief pitcher Justin Martinez.
ONE TO WATCH
The brief for this section was “A player that casual fans of other teams might not know much about” but, sorry, I can’t take my eyes off Corbin Carroll, and neither should you.
Apparently, 2024 was a down season for the former first-rounder, as he slumped in the second half while trying to make swing adjustments. He only hit 22 doubles, 22 homers, swiped 35 bags, and legged out a league-leading 13 triples.
The 2023 Rookie of the Year is growing into his power, so maybe a 30 home run, 60 stolen base season is possible. His .394 AVG, .848 SLG, 1.307 OPS with four home runs and two stolen bases in spring training suggests he is ready for Opening Day.
Leading off for the free-scoring D-Backs, Carroll scored 121 runs last year, so imagine the run total this season if he doesn’t have another down year.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
Reason 1: Leading run scorers in 2024 was not a fluke. The top five of Carroll, Marte, Gurriel Jr., Naylor, and Suarez is about as powerful as any in MLB.
Reason 2: A good rotation became a great rotation with the addition of Corbin Burnes. Even though Arizona has lost Jordan Montgomery for the season due to Tommy John surgery, the depth is so strong that Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson are not in the rotation.
Reason 3: MLB’s No.8 prospect hitter, Jordan Lawlar is on the verge of breaking into the starting lineup. The shrewd extension of Geraldo Perdomo will allow Lawlar to start the season in Triple-A and impact the team midseason.
Reason 4: The bullpen was dreadful last season – 25th in MLB with 4.41 ERA – the reinforced relief corps, led by A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez, is now projected as a top-10 bullpen
Reason 5: Bat Flips & Nerds stat guru Darius Austin picked Pavin Smith as a breakout candidate. If I know one thing about Darius, it is that he seldom makes poor choices. Smith ratcheted the power to 112 mph off the bat with a .395 xwOBA (league average is .315). He is expected to see most of the at-bats as designated hitter against right-handed pitchers
2025 PREDICTION
Unless the Los Angeles Dodgers fail to live up to the over-hyped expectations, the NL West division pennant will likely be beyond the D-Backs’ grasp, but it is hard to see them failing to reach the playoffs.
And if they are playing October baseball, I can see Arizona going all the way to the World Series. The twin pitching aces of Gallen and Burnes, backed up by Pfaadt, Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Merrill Kelly will help power the offense to Arizona’s first World Series championship since 2021.
Featured image photo of Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte by John Fisher/Getty Images
