Lindor, Steele, Donovan, Pfaadt, Ramos

Jan 22 2025 3:03am

Lindor provides power and speed … Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM) continued to deliver fantasy goodness in 2024, as he finished with a $32 R$. At his 15 ADP, how are his skills? 

Lindor offers strong across-the-board skills with a 257 BPX: 

• The shortstop built upon his 2023 xPX and increased his xPX in 2024. With a 172 second-half xPX, he slugged 20 second-half HR, and his career-high Brl% landed in the 90th percentile. He made the most of his FB%, as he had a 94.6 mph exit velocity on fly balls with a 323 feet average fly ball distance and a 31.6% Brl%/PA on fly balls. His 17% xHR/F say he earned his power when compared to his 15% HR/F. 
• Even with a similar below-average Spd to his 2023 Spd, his 88% SB% made the most of his chances. For his career, he has a 99 Spd, 80% SB%, and 16% SBO. 
• His ct% moved closer to his career ct%, and a higher HctX aided his BA and xBA efforts. Lindor’s xBA finished in the 93rd percentile, and his 47.4% HardHit% was in the 83rd percentile. His 29% h% mirrored his career h%, and he has a 122 career HctX. 
• When looking at platoon splits, he has an 84% career ct% vL with a .283 career BA vL, .850 career OPS vL, and 123 career PX vL. His power results are similar versus RHP with a 127 PX vR, and he has an 80% career ct% vR with a .259 career BA vR, and .804 career OPS vR. 

Lindor’s AAA reliability provides a high floor while his 4445 Mayberry Method score offers five-category contributions. His xHR/F and Brl% growth give him a chance at another 30+ HR season. His consistent ct% and HctX say he can provide a BA near his .274 career BA, and his SB success backed by his SB% and SBO% should provide another 20+ SB. Lindor’s skills are worth the cost at his ADP with a good chance at a $30 R$ in 2025. 

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Steele offers steady ratios … Even with 52 days on the IL in 2024, Justin Steele (LHP, CHC) provided similar ratios in fewer innings than 2023. How were the lefty’s skills behind the results? 

He offered above-average skills with a 135 BPX:

• Steele offers mostly a two-pitch mix with his four-seam fastball (59.5% usage) and slider (29.7% usage). His slider missed the most bats with a 14.1% SwK while his fastball had a 9.8% SwK near its 9.5% career SwK. The lefty’s velocity had dropped since 2021, and his fastball velocity was in the 16th percentile in 2024. The southpaw has a 24% career K% with an 11% career SwK. 
• The lefty’s ground ball rate dipped with his fastball’s 40.8% GB%, which was below its career 47.7% GB%. He limited hard-hit balls with a 33.2% HardHit% allowed in the 88th percentile, and his 4.2% Brl% allowed in the 94th percentile contributed to his 6% xHR/F. His H% stayed below his 32% career H%, and he has a 3.54 career xERA. 
• He offered strong control with his Ball%, and his BB% finished in the 68th percentile. Steele had a 5% xBB% in 2024 with a 1.21 xWHIP, and he has a 1.22 career WHIP. 
• He posted a career-high 50% DOM% in 24 GS. 

At his 129 ADP, Steele offers above-average skills. Even with a velocity decline, he creates enough swings and misses to sustain his K% trend. Giving up fewer barrels and hard-hit balls can help his ERA stay in the lower 3.00s. Although his Ball% can help WHIP, his career H% and career WHIP expect a higher result in 2024. With health (grade F), he has the skills for a high-teens R$. 

Donovan improves … With a full season of plate appearances, Brendan Donovan (2B, STL) finished with an $11 R$. Can he carry over the success to 2025?

His improving skills (196 BPX) support a repeat: 

• Donovan’s consistent ct% continued, which paired well with his above-average HctX. His contact features a variety of the playing field with a 36% Pull%, 35.8% Center%, and 27.8% Oppo%. He offers an 86% career ct% with a .280 career BA and .271 career xBA. 
• Even though the ct% is consistent against LHP and RHP, he has more success vs. RHP with a .285 career BA vR and .796 OPS vR compared to his .260 career BA vL and .670 career OPS vL. 
• With a league-average xPX, his 7% HR/F finished near his 8% xHR/F. He increased his FB% while trimming his IFFB% to 7.5% in 2024. He had a 91 mph exit velocity on fly balls with a 314 feet average fly ball distance. All 14 of his HR came against RHP while his 5.5% Brl% landed in the 24th percentile, and he has a 99 career xPX. 
• His Spd dipped below average, and his Sprint Speed finished in the 40th percentile. Monitor his 50% SB%, as he has a 57% career SB% with a 90 career Spd and 5% career SBO%. 

Making consistent contact is a strength of Donovan’s game, as he can hit to all fields. His career ct% and improving HctX back a BA near his career xBA. Monitor his production versus LHP. Even with a league-average xPX, his Brl% and 31% career FB% point to a low double-digit HR tally. Watch the SBO light, as his SB% may keep him in the mid-single digits for SB. At his 241 ADP, he’s a MI option that provides BA and some counting stats. 

Pfaadt’s results didn’t match his skills … Adding more innings with a 1.24 WHIP didn’t help Brandon Pfaadt (RHP, ARI) reach a positive R$ in 2024. How were his skills behind his 2024 ratios? 

The right hander improved his skills (146 BPX) with more ground balls: 

• Pfaadt trimmed his four-seam fastball usage from 45.3% in 2023 to 33.4% in 2024. His slider/sweeper creates the most swings and misses with an 18.1% SwK with a 35.8% O-Swing%. He also missed bats with his change-up’s 14.4% SwK and curveball’s 10.1% SwK. For his career, he has a 12% SwK and 23% K%. 
• In the second half, he posted a 94.4 mph velocity with a 12.7% SwK and 27% K%. Even with the velocity gain, his four-seam fastball had a .466 SLG allowed and .510 xSLG allowed. 
• Increasing his sinker usage to 22.2% added more ground balls, as his sinker had a 58.9% GB%. His change-up also induced grounders with a 50.8% GB%. While he reduced his Brl% allowed from 11.7% in 2023 to 8.1% in 2024, his Brl% allowed finished in the 41st percentile. Cutting his HR/F was backed by a 12% xHR/F. Even though he does have a 64% career S% and 35% career H%, he does have a 3.98 career xERA. 
• Throwing more FpK (70%) is a positive sign for his skills, and his BB% finished in the 87th percentile. He has a 5% career BB% and 1.30 career WHIP. 

Adding more sinkers to his arsenal supported his rising GB%. While his xERA argues for more improvement, reducing his four-seam fastball usage even more could help expedite the positive regression expected. The right hander controls the zone well, as his BB% is his strongest skill.  With ratio improvement expected, he could make a run at a low double-digit R$. 

Ramos enters top 200 … In his first season of 500+ plate appearances, Heliot Ramos (OF, SF) finished with a $10 R$. As he hit 22 HR in 2024, what does he offer at his 195 ADP? 

He can offer some power with an improving ct% and counting stats: 

• After his below-average xPX in 2023, Ramos posted an above-average xPX in 2024. He hit the ball hard, as his 15% Brl% was in the 92nd percentile with a 47.5% HardHit% in the 85th percentile. When he lifted the ball, he had a 96.3 MPH exit velocity on fly balls with a 328 feet average fly ball distance and 40.9% Brl%/PA on fly balls. The fact that his 22% xHR/F finished above his 17% HR/F showed his power skills. 
• He flashed more power when facing LHP with a .750 SLG vL and 237 PX vL compared to his .387 SLG vR and 96 PX vR. 
• Making more ct% with increasing HctX helped his hitting profile. His h% did finish above his 31% career h%, and his xBA was in the 53rd percentile.  
• Although his SBO% dropped in 2024, his Spd remained above average. He successfully swiped 85% of his 2024 SB attempts. 

While his 2024 BA may not last, his improving ct% and HctX give him a chance at a BA near his 2024 xBA. His power was a fact, as his Brl% and power metrics back another 20+ HR season. Sprinkling in some SB with his Spd and SB% give him the skills to match his 2024 SB total. With health (Grade C), the skills (150 BPX) are here for a low double-digit R$ repeat. 

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