Despite a 89-73 record, 2024 felt like a lost season for Atlanta Braves fans. Starting your first playoff game with four backups and a starting pitcher who threw a total of 4.1 major league innings in 2024 is always going to be a tough time, and getting swept out of the playoffs felt about right for a team that just about hobbled its way in. So why did a near-90 win team feel like such a failure?
What happened in 2024?
Unfortunately, the theme of the year for the Braves in 2024 was injuries. Per Fangraphs’ ZIPS, the Braves lost the second-most projected WAR from their roster as a result of injuries, second only to the world champion Dodgers (terrifying). With Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider going on long IL stints after their first and second games of the season respectively, 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr tearing his ACL in May and Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II all missing over 50 games, a collection of star Immaculate Grid answers took meaningful reps for the team, with Luke Williams, Eli White and Zack Short all appearing in 30 or more games.
This was coupled with some dissappointing seasons – Matt Olson was good but not great, with his OPS+ dipping from 164 in 2023 to 118 in 2024, and he only (!) hit 29 home runs in comparison to last year’s Braves record 54 – and players that the Braves have relied on as quality depth or for fringe starting roles generally underwhelmed, with Orlando Arcia and Jarred Kelenic both barely performing above replacement level, and Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario all flopping, combining for a total of -1.3 bWAR over a combined 177 games. The only Braves slugger who perfrmed to expectation was Marcell Ozuna, who, since an insipid 2021 and 2022 where he combined for -1 bWAR, has flourished into MLB’s best non-pitching DH, coming fourth in MVP voting in 2024 while slashing .302/.378/.546 and hitting 39 taters.
This said, while the Braves bats dissappointed, their pitching shined. Chris Sale pitched arguably the best season of his storied career, leading the NL in strikeouts, ERA, and FIP – as he captured his first Cy Young award at the young age of 35. Reynaldo Lopez also captured Cy Young votes, as he pitched to a 1.99 ERA over 135 innings of work, and Spencer Schwellenbach had an excellent rookie season, managing a 3.35 ERA over 123 innings. With an ERA+ of 124, he was 24% better by ERA than the league average pitcher, putting him in the range of pitchers like Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole and Yu Darvish. Alongside another typical Max Fried season, 165 innings eaten by Charlie Morton and a strong, deep bullpen, the pitching staff covered for a sub-par offensive showing and more.
Notable comings and goings
| Notable comings | Notable goings |
| OF Jurickson Profar (from SD, 3y/$42m) | SP Max Fried (to NYY, 8y/$218m) |
| SS Nick Allen (from ATH via trade) | RP A.J. Minter (to NYM, 2y/$22m) |
| OF Bryan De La Cruz (free agent, 1y/$860k) | SP Charlie Morton (to BAL, 1y/$15m) |
| C Travis D’Arnaud (to LAA, 2y/$12m) | |
| OF Jorge Soler (to LAA via trade) |
From a pure numbers perspective, the Braves are losing a lot more than they’re gaining. Max Fried has been one of the best pitchers by WAR in Braves history, ranking 8th since integration in 1947. A.J. Minter leaving means the whole of the Night Shift has now clocked off, and Charlie Morton and Travis D’Arnaud were solid contributors for the last few seasons.
While those are significant losses, Jurickson Profar could be a serious gain for a team without a solution in left field. Profar had a career year for the 2024 Padres, only trailing rookie sensation Jackson Merrill in position player WAR for the club. Jurickson profiles to be a serious upgrade to the Duvall/Rosario/Kelenic/Laureano carousel from 2024. Both Nick Allen and Bryan de la Cruz are likely bench bats, though Allen might have a shot at taking over from Arcia at shortstop if improvements aren’t made.
Areas of weakness
With the Profar signing, shortstop is now the only position on the diamond with an expected below-average hitter. Except for his age-22 season in 2017 and a surprise all-star appearance in 2023, Arcia has been a barely above-replacement level player who profiles much more as a utility infielder than the starter on a championship-caliber team.
The Braves also lack any internal minor-league candidates to replace him – top infield prospect Nacho Alvarez Jr. profiles more comfortably at second or third, and as the Braves have gone heavy on pitching in the upper rounds of recent drafts, there’s no-one close to the majors to can play there.
For this year, expect the Braves to roll with Arcia, or look for recent acquisition Nick Allen to take over. He brings elite defense – the first highlight in the video below is unreal – and a toothpick for a bat, but one strong tool might be better than what Arcia has at this point in his career.
One to watch
I’ll be looking to see if Spencer Schwellenbach can build on his breakout rookie campaign. His underlying metrics seem to corroborate the fact that he’s a serious, top of the rotation major-league pitcher. His chase rate, ability to avoid barrels and walk rate are all already elite, and at the age of 24, he has time to work on everything else.
What to look out for in Spring Training
The big battle in Spring Training comes at the back end of the rotation. With Spencer Strider out for at least the first couple of passes through the rotation, there are a couple of undecided spots. Grant Holmes seems to have the inside lane on the #4 spot after pitching so well at the end of last year, so it seems to be between Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder, or possibly AJ Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep for the #5. Given that the only player of the bunch with no minor-league options remaining is Ian Anderson, it’s likely that he’s the frontrunner – but don’t put it past any of the others to make a flying start to the year and take that from him.
How 2025 will unfold
It seems likely that the NL East is going to be a real slugfest – three 95+ win teams is not out of the question. It seems like that if the Braves could make the playoffs last year with what felt like a rag-tag army of position players then they should be a lock for this coming year. Once they get there, anything can happen (they’re going to win the World Series. Book it.).
You can follow Charlie on Bluesky at @charliedeeks.bsky.social. Fancy writing for us? Get in touch here!
Featured image of Ozzie Albies by Geoff Burke/USA Today
