With Spring Training games well underway, we’re getting our first glimpses at the 2025 squads and budding prospects; it’s time to do a 2025 season preview for the Seattle Mariners.
2024 Retrospective
The 2024 season ended the same way 2023 did- missing out on a playoff spot by one game.
On 18 June, the Mariners held a 10-game lead in the AL West due to a generational starting rotation carrying the slack for a historically bad offence. The division rivals, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers were looming but were riddled with injuries to key players. Eventually, the horrendous offence sunk the Mariners’ ship, and in only 24 games, Seattle squandered its division lead.
There were some interesting late-season acquisitions.. The early June claim of outfielder Victor Robles gave a much-needed spark as he would hit for a .328 batting average for the remainder of the season. The trade deadline acquisitions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner also gave the lineup some firepower, however it was futile as the Mariners would end the season with a 85-77 record, three and a half games behind the Houston Astros, and one game off the third Wild Card spot.
A Frustratingly Mellow Winter
The biggest offseason news in Seattle was the lack of spending in a competitive window. The Mariners did acquire Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco, but both moves were underwhelming for fans who were bombarded with reports that the front office may have to resort to trading away one of their elite starting pitchers to get a bat.
Per Spotrac, the Mariners’ projected payroll is approximately $800k LESS than their payroll in 2024. To be fair, the trade deadline could increase the payroll by the end of the season, but not increasing payroll by a considerable margin after missing the playoffs by one game two years in a row is baffling.
For a fan base that has been loyal through a playoff drought that took over 20 years to break and hasn’t seen their team play on a field adorned with “World Series” painted in the grass, why can’t their loyalty be rewarded with investment?
Keep An Eye on “Nuke”
One of the most important Mariners this year is Luke Raley. Although listed on the active roster page as an outfielder, it’s widely expected that Raley will end up filling the hole at first base. In his career, Raley has played a total of 79 MLB games at first base, with 41 of those occurring last year for Seattle.
The lefty bat was one of the Mariners’ best hitters last season, slashing .243/.320/.463 for a 129 wRC+. Raley’s 22 home runs ranked second on the team, and his bomb against the Philadelphia Phillies on 2 August was the longest home run for the Mariners in 2024, travelling 459 ft and hitting off the third deck in right-centre. Raley’s deceptive speed and hustle were also on full display in multiple moments last year, namely his game-tying RBI bunt against the White Sox in June.
Between his solid bat, unbelievable power, eye-opening speed, and fantastic personality, Raley could be one of the most important Mariners if he produces.
Entering the offseason, every infield position outside of shortstop was up for grabs. With third base going to the returning Polanco and second base continuing to be a revolving door, Raley is the most suitable player to slot in at first.
Reasons for Optimism
- Starting Rotation: The Mariners’ starting rotation stayed fully intact after an offseason filled with rumors of trade talks. Seattle’s biggest strength is currently poised to enter the season healthy. Every Mariners starting pitcher could be a Cy Young contender this year.
- Bullpen Pieces Back: The three-headed dragon in the bullpen may come to fruition. Matt Brash, who missed all of 2024 due to Tommy John Surgery, is planning to return at the end of April. Gregory Santos only played in seven games for the Mariners in 2024, but he’s entering Spring Training healthy and firing on all cylinders.
- A Star-Studded Outfield: The current starting outfield for the Mariners will be Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodríguez, and Victor Robles. This season will be our first full one with Arozarena and Robles, both of whom injected some much-needed energy into the dead 2024 offense. As for the franchise cornerstone in centre field, Rodríguez needs to bounce back from his frustrating 2024 campaign.
- The Offence Can’t Be THAT Bad Again, Right?: It wouldn’t be hyperbolic to call the 2024 Mariners offense historically bad; they did rank second in strikeouts and 17th in batting average for all teams in the Integration Era (since 1947) after all. The Mariners lost 31 games where the starting pitcher hurled a quality start last season, and as long as the offense isn’t as atrocious, they should win more of those close games.
- Third Overall Draft Pick: Although this doesn’t directly affect the 2025 squad, it is exciting that the draft lottery graced the Mariners with the third overall pick in this year’s amateur draft. The Jerry Dipoto regime has been effective in their drafting, resulting in the Mariners farm system routinely ranking in the top five. Could Jamie Arnold or Jace LaViolette be a Mariner in a few months? Maybe!
Season Prediction
I tend to lean more on the optimistic side of the tortured Mariners fan base, and I will not stray away from that optimism today. My prediction is that the Mariners will win 88 games and will play October baseball.
The Mariners, although lacking in any real upgrades, are in a better position than they were just a year ago. Multiple players will be entering their second season with the club, which gives hope that they will turn around their production in the not-so-hitter-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park.
The starting rotation is back in full force, and as of now are all healthy going into the season. [EDITOR’S NOTE: After Jake submitted this article, we learnt about George Kirby’s injury. Read Jake’s take on the situation here]
Tattered by injuries in 2025, the bullpen will be getting back two huge pieces of their equation.
After his first real “down” season, Julio Rodriguez has his first opportunity to show his resilience and turn into the MVP-calibre player that he should be.
Compared to the other teams in the division, the Mariners are definitely better than the Angels and Athletics, although the Athletics will definitely be a solid team this year. The Rangers offense will probably be more consistent than Seattle’s, but their pitching staff has a lot of question marks.
The Astros will still be the ones to beat, with solid additions in Christian Walker and Issac Paredes, but losing franchise staples in Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.
I expect the 2025 Mariners to be hungrier and more intense than their 2024 counterparts. With a largely new coaching staff, this team has gone through the pain of losing a division lead in record time and missing the playoffs by the narrowest of margins. If they’ve learned from that, I doubt they let it happen again.
Featured Image Credit: AP Photo/Paul Sancya
Jake Tomasello is the Bat Flips & Nerds Mariners correspondent for 2025 who can be found across social media @RaiseTheTrident
